Congressman Denny Rehberg of Montana, who just lost a Senate bid, is reported in The Hill to be convinced the Republicans have no traction in a debt ceiling fight.
The scenario goes like this: (1) The GOP digs in on entitlement cuts, (2) the stock market tanks, and (3) there’s a global recession, maybe even a depression. It’s pretty clear this is exactly what will happen because we teetered on the brink just weeks ago over the fiscal cliff battle.
The danger to Republicans is that their base will suffer the consequences when (4) small businesses struggle in a prolonged economic downturn, because (5) business is terrible and, (6) credit is hard to get. (as if these last three conditions aren’t in place right now).
Everybody will blame all this doom and gloom – Doh! – on the Republicans. It’s pretty clear this is spot on, too. It’s a given than the mainstream media will pile on the conservatives. When you shake the cradle that rocks Wall Street, you get all the rest of the media on your back, too. The Wall Street Journal was livid over the fiscal cliff, as were all the conservative think tanks.
Well, then. That’s settles it. We just give in right now and let Obama have what he’ll get anyway, no limits on raising the debt ceiling for four years.
Let the rating agencies handle it. The Republicans throw in the towel, Obama jacks up the deficit, fails to make any inroads in entitlements, and boom – the rating agencies strike with a vengeance.
Thus, (1) Standard & Poors (which fired a shot across our bow just this past week) downgrades our debt, (2) stocks tumble, (3) Finches downgrades out debt, (4) stocks tumble more.
People suddenly realize (5) the Federal Reserve can’t do diddly squat because they already have $5 trillion in securities on their balance sheet and interest rates can’t go lower than 0%, and (6) Washington can’t pass another $1 trillion stimulus because – Doh! – we’ve had four $1 trillion stimuli in a row and they haven’t done squat (and besides we’re flat broke).
Either way, we’re screwed. Either way everybody will blame the Republicans. How come you caved? Where were your conservative values? You’re a bunch of gutless wonders. At least the Democrats do what they say.
Either way, conservatives lose. Might as well do the right thing and draw a line in the sand over entitlement reform. Draw in now and never budge.
Speaker Boehner’s the man with the plan. No more one-on-one negotiations. Make the Democrats follow standard parliamentary procedure and open the whole bloody fiasco to the media, with wall to wall debate coverage on CNN or Fox News or YouTube if nobody else will have it.
This is war.
